Spot On!

4 December 2021

On Thursday (look it up!) I predicted that Pécresse would win the LR runoff 60-40. It was just announced that she got 60.95% of the final vote. You heard it here first, folks!

The field for 2022 is now set. I suspect that the next round of polling will show a significant post-convention bounce for Pécresse and a slight sag in support for Zemmour, now that he has ended his fan dance and declared himself a candidate in a widely mocked YouTube video. Pécresse will pick up support from former Bertrand and Barnier supporters, while Zemmour and Le Pen are likely to gain smaller amounts from disappointed Ciotti backers. If the Pécresse bounce is enough to put her ahead of Zemmour or Le Pen, expect a significant amount of chatter touting her as the new chief rival to Macron. This could change the dynamics of the race somewhat.

Remember 2016-17, however. Lots can happen between now and April. Pécresse will now come under intense scrutiny, and we shall see what emerges.



  • bernard says:

    Congrats. Now, can we have the 2022 presidential runoff numbers? Thanks.

  • FrédéricLN says:

    I expect Pécresse to gain a number of support from former Macron supporters. Macron presidency aligned, after only a few weeks, on a Sarkozy-like agenda. What “added value” has the Macron vote today, compared to supporting a true party with a wide sociological basis, militant support and political staff? I expect Macron backers to come very fast short on arguments. The “incumbent bonus” decreases quite fast with time (and the case of Hollande shows it can decrease to negative). So the race should turn into a two-horses one, Pécresse against Le Pen. (You may have read that by mine months ago… or I may have kept my speculations for myself, as predicting the future is so hard…).

    But: Macron falling support might benefit to other “non-right wing” candidates like Jadot… Pécresse can still be betrayed by some folks at LR or some Macron supporters with good files… Some RN staff might turn to Zemmour… This, so far, all-Parisian race might open room to some support coming from the countryside towards an alternative like Jean Lassalle… Or what else?!… I should leave predictions to true pundits 🙂

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