New Polls Indicate Yet Another New Race
As I predicted in my previous post, Valérie Pécresse has obtained a significant “post-convention bounce,” while Éric Zemmour has slumped. A new IFOP poll has Macron at 25% and Pécresse even with Le Pen at 17, while Zemmour has fallen to 13 and Mélenchon to 9. Jadot is at 6 and Hidalgo at 5.
In the second round, IFOP has Macron beating Pécresse by only 52 to 48, compared with 56 to 44 against Le Pen and 63 to 37 against Zemmour. Left-wing voters are much more likely to vote for Macron in the second round if either Le Pen or Zemmour is his opponent; Pécresse, despite having a platform a far to the right as Fillon’s in 2017, is much more palatable to voters who identify as left-wing.
Harris Interactive has Macron at 23 and Le Pen at 18, with Zemmour and Pécresse both at 14.
All the usual caveats apply. I don’t much like horse-race reporting, but every once in a while one has to pause to look at the polls, and Pécresse’s victory in the LR primary clearly marks a turning point in the race, clarifying the options sufficiently to allow a first assessment of how the electorate looks as the campaign begins in earnest.