Has Le Pen Peaked?
The Guardian asked me to comment on last Sunday’s election. You can read the article here. Of course, the RN could still take PACA next Sunday, but the idea that a repeat of the 2017 Macron-Le Pen confrontation is inevitable has been called into question.
Tags: Emmanuel Macron, Elections, Rassemblement National
The most striking item for political analysis seems to me to be the following. Throughout the eighties, nineties and more, opinion polls systematically understated front national voting, even though pollsters corrected upward raw results. Since Marine Le pen took over the front national, opinion polls have been overstating front national voting. This was true at least in 2017 (Presidential election) , 2020 (mayoral elections) and now 2021 (regional and departmental elections). It would seems that pollsters are now over correcting raw results. Adding to this the sad fact that 90% of the written and spoken press works up a frenzy these days to support the front national (no crime is too insignificant to mention for the press), we can see how the chattering classes are self-intoxicating with the front national.
This party has changed its name by the way, but not its themes: some 80% of its propaganda is still related to immigration (of the black and brown persuasion naturally). Electors, when they bother to go and vote, may not believe these days that immigration is the single most important topic of the day.
I personally suspected that Marine le Pen had topped in the 2017 presidential and commented so on this blog. I have not seen actual data disproving this suspicion since then. Let us hope that I am right despite the less than impressive achievements of Macronism.
It looks like the only challenge to both Macron and Le Pen may come from the (center-)right, so you argue. Indeed, it looks like a mix of factors are in favor of LR: deeply rooted in regions / communes as well as in government (so, comforting in times of troubles); many leaders with obvious personal ability to do approximately as well as Hollande or Macron, and no strong reason to reject them as potential disasters. As a matter of fact, even other leaders of LR that are less known at national level could do the job quite decently. Voting LR is a non-brainer if you have low expectations. At least you quit the feeling of constant fake you may have with the present no-party-administration, and you escape the very uncertain perspective of a RN presidency.
For sure, also the left and the Greens should have a decent and relevant offering to confront the present crisis. But it looks like they just don’t care. Maybe the feel they do not have any leader that could last long against the opposition of a 75%-righter country and political milieu.