Can Marine Le Pen Win in 2022?

12 May 2021

I assess her chances in Persuasion. The short answer: yes.

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2 Comments

  • Burt Perrin says:

    Unfortunately, the story seems to be missing.

  • FrédéricLN says:

    (The link works, thanks!).

    I find your analysis quite enlightening. I would add an argument (which should appear quite fast in the public debate, should Ms Le Pen’s polls get nearer of 50%): even with a Le Pen victory at the presidential election, it would remain quite unlikely that her party RN reaches an absolute majority at the Assemblée Nationale. Thus, the administration would quite compulsorily be a coalition one, quite probably led or fed by people from the traditional right (LR). Ms Le Pen herself calls to “union nationale”, an implicit recognition that RN isn’t in a position to run an administration against all other political forces.

    What I have no clue about, is: how people would consider this perspective of a “LR+RN administration”.

    As a reasonable perspective of “changement dans la continuité”, with a stronger command than would be expected from Pecresse or Bertrand, yet a bench deep enough to provide some sustainability?

    Or as a reason to make the more consistent choice of a LR presidency — because, would a Le Pen presidency really bring added value to a LR-fed government? Would she be the true disruptive, anti-governement, leader, Trump has been and many/most RN voters would expect their leader to be? This is a role she would not happily play (despite her education, Ms Le Pen is by temper a reasonable person), and her direct competitors (Philippot, Dupont-Aignan) try hard to steal from RN.

    Just my 2 or 3 cents, for sure.

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