Well, the polls were indeed wrong, and Donald Trump won a decisive victory. We must now recognize him as the most important American political figure since, well, probably, Franklin […]

With election day almost here, the polls all continue to show an agonizingly close race, but the polling data itself remains frustratingly hard to interpret. According to the New York […]

Yes, it’s all about him, and it was always going to be all about him. But will he win? With one week to go, Trump and Harris are both campaigning […]

Two weeks to go, and the presidential polls remain as close as they could possibly be. Little has shifted in the past seven days, and there has been little real […]

Over the past week, very little has changed in the presidential race. The polls in the seven key battleground states remain agonizingly close, and the election’s political dynamics seem, for […]

Has Kamala Harris’s campaign stalled? It is now less than a month before the election, and the energy and excitement that built up around the Democratic candidate after her assumption […]

Since my last column, remarkably little has changed in the presidential campaign. Observers mostly agreed that Kamala Harris decisively beat Donald Trump in their September 10 debate (Trump, of course, […]

By any reasonable measure it was a massacre. Overall, Kamala Harris performed brilliantly, under enormous pressure. She spoke lucidly, fluidly, convincingly, eloquently. She did not let Donald Trump fluster her. […]

  So where do things stand?  After some of the most dramatic events in recent American history—the Biden-Trump debate, the assassination attempt, Biden’s exit from the race, and Kamala Harris’s […]

Since Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, the revival of the Democratic Party has defied virtually all expectations. Vice-President Kamala Harris quickly and skillfully united the Democrats behind her, […]

  It has been just two and a half weeks since Joe Biden decided to end his campaign for reelection, and in that time the presidential race has been entirely […]

You can call American politics a lot of things, but boring is not one of them. In less than two months, we have seen the former president and Republican nominee […]

As a historian, I like to think that the course of human events falls into regular, knowable patterns that a careful observer can uncover and explain. But there are days […]

For months the U.S. presidential contest seemed almost frozen in place, the two candidates already chosen, and most of the key events taking place in courthouses, not on the campaign […]

If any proof were still needed of the utter weirdness of American politics in 2024, it is this: A political candidate bribes a porn star to keep quiet about their […]

Over the past two weeks, the chances of Donald Trump returning to power have grown considerably. Here are three reasons why. First, Trump has established beyond any doubt his complete […]

[NOTE TO READERS: This Election Chronicle is also being published in French and Spanish translations at Le Grand Continent]. As I predicted in an earlier post, the presidential campaign these […]

Donald Trump’s greatest gift, if you can call it that, is an unparalleled ability to focus attention on himself. That attention may be appalled. It may be admiring. But it […]

  Presidential elections are occasions of great drama and uncertainty. In some races, candidates can emerge from relative obscurity to blaze a path to the White House, like Jimmy Carter […]

Tocqueville 21 was born of the belief that history, and historical insight, can and must contribute to our understanding of the contemporary political and moral landscape. As the American political […]