David Bell – An Election Under Fire, And the Character Issue
As a historian, I like to think that the course of human events falls into regular, knowable patterns that a careful observer can uncover and explain. But there are days that remind me, all too sharply, that tiny matters of chance can have massive, explosive, unforeseen consequences. That they can, in fact, turn history in a new direction.
On July 13, the matter of chance was the path of a bullet, as determined by the hesitant aim of a young and unsteady shooter and the wind. Had that path shifted by an inch and a half, Donald Trump would now be dead, and the United States might well be falling into chaos. Imagine. The Republican Party has no fallback candidate, and its national convention is this week. Trump’s supporters blame the assassination on the Democrats and demand Biden’s immediate resignation. The levels of anger in the country rise exponentially, with large-scale violence possible. Republican governors and state legislatures threaten to defy the authority of the federal government to block Joe Biden’s reelection.
Instead, Trump is alive, more of a hero than ever to his followers, and his remarkable conduct during the shooting has increased the already great likelihood of his election to a second term in November. Was he in shock when, with blood streaming down his face, he rose to his feet, shook his fist in the air, and shouted “Fight! Fight! USA! USA!” Perhaps. But it was still hard, in that moment, not to feel sympathy and admiration for him. Let’s be clear. I think Trump is the worst president the United States has ever had, not to mention a sociopathic narcissist and the walking embodiment of the seven deadly sins. I would never vote for him. But even I felt sympathy and admiration for him in that moment. It’s human.
The way the failed assassination played out benefits Trump in many ways, some obvious, some less so. It will drive enthusiasm and turnout among his already zealous followers. It will bring undecided voters over to his side. By distracting attention from the Democrats, it will relieve some of the pressure on Joe Biden to step aside and let another, more electable candidate run in his stead. It will make it harder for the criminal cases against Trump to proceed. Already on Monday, in a stunning and nakedly partisan decision, Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the mishandling of documents case against Trump.
This week the Republican convention will take place in Milwaukee. Before the failed assassination, media coverage would probably have concentrated strongly on the party’s radicalism and its unhealthy fealty to the Dear Leader. The event would have given the Democrats the chance to divert attention from the weakness of their own candidate and talk about the flaws of the other guy. Now, the Republican convention will be reported largely as Trump’s personal triumph, and concerns about the party’s radicalism will be balanced by questions about whether apocalyptic liberal warnings about Trump (for instance, the recent New Republic cover story that literally depicted him as Hitler) contributed to the assassination attempt.
Most importantly, Trump’s behavior under fire will blunt the issue on which he is most vulnerable: his character. Up until now, even many of his most zealous supporters recognized that the former president is in no sense a good man. Some reached for unlikely biblical comparisons to cast him as an “imperfect instrument” of God’s plan. Imperfect indeed! But nothing more quickly cleanses the reputation of a moral monster than images of victimhood and heroism, of the sort that are currently dominating television screens and the internet, and that the Republican party will be promoting with all its might between now and November.
Yes, it is possible that the shooting will ultimately change less than we might think. The political divisions in the United States today are not only enormous but petrified. Most voters will not change their minds at this point, whatever happens. We are still in a political world where the presidential election will likely depend on turnout, and on the choices of a small minority of swing voters in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. By November, the steady stream of outrageous lies and threats that issue from Trump whenever he opens his mouth may eclipse the memory of the failed assassination—and also Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance two weeks ago. It is these facts that have given comfort, and rhetorical ammunition, to those Democrats who have insisted over the past two weeks that Biden can still win, and that it would be a mistake to replace him.
But in the end, the arguments do not convince. The votes are not entirely predetermined. There remains at least some room for change. Even before the debate, the polls showed Biden, at best, in a dead heat with Trump, at worst, several points behind in the key battleground states. Did the debate, and then Trump’s conduct under all too literal fire, make anyone at all more likely to vote for Biden? Pretty clearly not. As things now stand, barring (another) catastrophic and unforeseen event, if Biden remains the Democratic candidate, he is virtually certain to lose. It makes sense for the Democrats to replace him. A different candidate—most likely, Vice-President Harris—will also probably lose. But as I wrote here last week, simply by upsetting the race and introducing a new degree of uncertainty, that candidate might at least have a chance. Current polls offer no real guide to how he or she might do in November, because so much will change if Biden steps aside. But Biden himself seems determined to stay the course. He has deluded himself into thinking that only he can save America from Trump’s second coming. He is developing a narcissism of his own.
The perception of that narcissism by the public will only hurt Biden further. Between the unfortunately well-founded concerns as to his strength and mental capacity, and the image he is acquiring as a deludedly stubborn curmudgeon, steering his party onto the reefs, the character issue is starting to turn against him. Even as it is turning, bizarrely, in Donald Trump’s favor. Thanks to the path of a bullet.