Barnum and Bailey, er, Make that Barnier and Bailey
Yes, indeed, the process of nominating a prime minister in France has been a rollicking circus worthy of Barnum and Bailey, and the nomination this morning of Michel Barnier therefore seems a fitting climax. Of course, the roller coaster ride isn’t over. The survival of a yet-to-be-named Barnier government will depend on the good will of Mme Le Pen. So far she seems to be pleased with M. Macron’s choice: M. Barnier “semble répondre au moins au premier critère que nous avions réclamé, c’est-à-dire un homme qui soit respectueux des différentes forces politiques et capable de pouvoir s’adresser au Rassemblement national, qui est le premier groupe de l’Assemblée nationale, de la même façon qu’aux autres groupes.”
Evidently, those private dinners with Édouard Philippe and the several tête-à-tête with the president were not in vain. The RN has been placated, while the NFP has been infuriated (reports Le Monde):
« De qui se moque-t-on ? C’est un vrai scandale (…). Tout ça pour ça… », a fustigé dans une vidéo publiée sur X la secrétaire nationale d’EELV. « Ce qui vient de se passer en France, pendant soixante jours (…), si ça s’était passé n’importe où en Europe, on aurait trouvé ça déplorable sur le plan démocratique. » Elle s’est également adressée aux électeurs du NFP – « surtout, ne vous résignez pas. C’est exactement ce qu’ils attendent » – puis a remercié Lucie Castets, candidate proposée à Matignon par le NFP.
It was probably unreasonable to expect anything else from Macron.
As I speculated a while ago, the result of the president’s tergiversations will be a government to the right of Renaissance, a government beholden to Marine Le Pen, and a government no doubt committed to the perpetuation of Macron’s unpopular pension reform and very likely obliged to impose a harsh austerity regime in light of the unexpectedly high 5.9% budget deficit. It will be a government doubly or triply imprinted with the stamp of illegitimacy: it will exclude the NFP, which represents the largest faction in the National Assembly, it will be led by a man who failed by a large margin to win the nomination of hiw own party when he stood for its the presidential nomination in 2022, and it will be dependent on the sufferance of the RN.
On the other hand, Barnier seems like a pleasant enough old fellow. He was OK as a Brexit negotiator, but Brexit was child’s play compared to the bear pit he will face in this fatally hung parliament. Let’s see how long he survives.
2 Comments
Dear Art:
When I heard the news, you could have knocked me over with a feather: classic Macron, using the technical rule to do things his way. This is why he is now hated —although to give the devil his due, Barnier will help Macron play for time.
What remains to be seen whether Barnier’s negotiating skills —which served France so well during Brexit— will be up to the challenge of dealing with “les indignés” on all sides of the political spectrum.
Macron goes from worse to worse. At least he will temporarily protect the things that he loves most – tax breaks for the rich and stripping the French pension system. Ah, and he did it in the classic Reaganite way – both destroying social democracy and leaving France with a massive deficit! I suppose this is what happens when you have a man whose real intellectual capacity would make him an excellent subordinate at McKinsey, or perhaps a minor cryptocurrency player, into the paper mache Matignon Jupiter. Good thing about this is that, in marrying Le Pen, basically, the RN will be colored Macronist. A real weight at the polls next time.