Tubiana or Not Tubiana

The Socialists, Greens, and Communists have agreed to propose Laurence Tubiana as the NFP’s candidate for prime minister, but LFI has rejected the proposal as “not serious.” On the contrary, the nomination–unlike that of Huguette Bello–is entirely serious, and that is why LFI is rejecting it. Because for the insoumis, the goal is not to find a person whom Macron will accept and who can then form a government that stands an outside chance of surviving for more than two weeks. It is rather to pursue a strategy of intransigence, blockage, and “heightening contradictions” for the purpose of distinguishing itself as the one true “revolutionary” alternative to the status quo. Disagreement, the louder the better, serves its ends. An ungovernable France proves its point, that the Fifth Republic must be replaced with a radical alternative.

Will LFI pursue this strategy to the bitter end, or will it lose its nerve and settle for a compromise and a number of choice ministerial portfolios? At the moment, I think it is prepared to fight to the bitter end–or, rather, what may seem to Mélenchon as the best of all possible worlds: chaos, leading to a new presidential election, the sooner the better, in which he puts himself forward once again as the champion of a reinvigorated left and, this time, with Macron out of the way, the only chance of stopping the Rassemblement National, which, as has just been demonstrated, two-thirds of the French do not want. The only problem with this reasoning is that we do not yet know how many of the French also do not want a Mélenchon-led left to come to power. My guess is that the number was already high before but has reached unprecedented levels because of the shabby spectacle Mélenchon has orchestrated over the past eight days. In a contest between Mélenchon and Le Pen, there is a good chance that Le Pen would win.