The End of the Line for Barnier

Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly last June because he knew he would face a censure vote on the budget in the fall. He had hoped to wrong-foot the parties by beating them to the punch with un coup de maître. The stars had always aligned for him–had he not won the presidency against all odds? But now at last his luck has run out.

He entrusted Michel Barnier, reputed to be a patient and wily negotiator, with finding a way out of the impasse created by the hung parliament that followed dissolution. But Barnier had a very weak hand, further weakened by the insistence of the Macroniste rump on preserving what could be preserved of the president’s supply-side approach to the budget.

The left was going to censure no matter what budget emerged, so everything depended on winning Marine Le Pen’s indulgence. Despite concession after concession, this was not to be. Le Pen’s base clamored for censure. Le Pen, of course, might have seized the occasion to claim victory–she had thoroughly humiliated the prime minister, after all–but this would have left the base still hungry and wondering if she hadn’t gone too far in her quest for respectability. Now it’s her turn to gamble, as Macron gambled with dissolution. So she’s going for broke: bring down the government and see what happens next.

Already the speculation mills are churning. To whom will Macron turn next? Barnier seems to have lost his favor by keeping him out of the loop. Le Monde has floated the name of Macron loyalist Sebastien Lecornu, ostensibly on the grounds that Le Pen appreciates the obeisance he demonstrated by participating (along with Edouard Philippe) in a (formerly) secret meeting with her before the European elections. But it’s hard to see what Lecornu could offer that Barnier hasn’t already–unless it’s to bring RN personalities into the cabinet, a poison pill that Le Pen would probably be quick to refuse.

So are we headed for another futile attempt at compromise, or perhaps for a technocratic government constrained to operate under the restrictions imposed when the Assembly cannot approve a budget? Mélenchon is of course calling on Macron to resign, a possibility I regard as remote. Meanwhile, the president is trying to revive his flagging fortunes on the strength of having rebuilt Notre-Dame. Who could have imagined, when the cathedral burned five years ago, that it would come to this? Macron has invited Donald Trump to join him in the holy sanctuary along with his fellow felon and newly appointed ambassador to France Charles Kushner. After Trump’s first election, Macron, then still riding high, invited the American president to France, where he found himself besieged by a charm offensive designed to exploit the egotistical Trump’s known susceptibility to flattery. Failure doesn’t seem to have deterred Macron from trying again. But Trump, for all his ignorance, has the killer’s instinct for weakness and will be well-aware that Macron is a spent force. It will be hard to endure the spectacle of Trump gloating over yet another kill.