Today, Édouard Philippe called on Emmanuel Macron to resign (after passage of a budget) and call an early presidential election, gladdening the heart of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who declared that LFI was “approaching its goal” of toppling not only Emmanuel Macron but the Fifth Republic as well. Macron has thus achieved the master stroke of engineering agreement of the far left (LFI), the far right (RN), and the center (Horizons): all want him out.
Lecornu still has 24 hours to land a second shot at forming a government, but the price of winning Retailleau’s approval seems to be for Lecornu to step aside in favor of Retailleau, which will surely drive out others who had signed on with Lecornu. Meanwhile, Macron has met with the presidents of the Senate and National Assembly (Larcher and Braun-Pivet), as he is required to do before a new dissolution.
In short, nothing material has changed since yesterday, but resentment of Macron’s stubbornness is growing across the political spectrum. Attal has said he “no longer understands” Macron’s decisions (which prompted a quip from un proche de Macron that the only decision of the president’s that he couldn’t understand was the nomination of Attal). Still, it’s a measure of Macron’s isolation that Attal, the leader of the party descended from what was once Macron’s personal political vehicle, so personal that it bore his own initials (En Marche!), has turned against him; his first prime minister, Philippe, has called on him to resign; and his two sworn enemies, Mélenchon and Le Pen, are gleeful at the prospect of his early departure.
Despite the furious politicking, there seems to be no way to make the numbers add up. Some on the left continue believe that the secret to overcoming the impasse is for Macron to turn at last to “the forces of the left.” They have somehow persuaded themselves that “the left” won the 2024 post-dissolution election. But even allowing for the fact that there is no more New Popular Front or NUPES, this notion cannot withstand a little basic parliamentary arithmetic. Consider this graph of the parliamentary representation:
Even if you add LFI, PS, Ecologists, and Democratic Left, you’re still well short of a majority, and there is no chance of forming a coalition with other parties around such a core (even if the PS and LFI could overcome their mutual antipathy). The first requisite of parliamentary government is the ability to count. The nostalgics of the left need to redo their sums.
So what will it be? Will Lecornu pull a rabbit from a hat? Will Macron dissolve yet again? Or will he at last he be driven out of the Elysée in ignominy and shame? Whatever happens, France will be the loser.