Into the Unknown
Macron has spoken. He will not resign–no surprise there. Beyond that, he gave nothing away about his intentions, except to make it clear that he continues to believe in the possibility of a “republican arc” government, that is, a majority excluding what he calls “the extreme left” and “the extreme right,” La France Insoumise and the Rassemblement National. In theory, such a government might be possible, if a compromise can be worked out between, on the one hand, the 210 deputies of various stripes comprising the parties of the center right and center and, on the other hand, an assortment of deputies drawn from the 66 Socialists, the 23 members of the Groupe Liot, and perhaps some miscellaneous Communists, Greens, and others. With 289 deputies needed for a majority, the arithmetic is just barely possible.
Arithmetic is one thing, however, while politics is another. Olivier Faure has already announced that the PS will not participate in a government led by a prime minister from “the right.” Presumably, that excludes Baroin and Lecornu, among two possibilities that have been floated in the press, as well as a re-appointment of Barnier. But if Macron actually dares to appoint a PM from “the left,” would the parties of the center and center-right swallow the pill? Especially if it includes a promise of non-censure? What would they demand in return? A rupture of the Nouveau Front Populaire (which in practice has all but ceased to exist)? Would that be acceptable to the PS? Would the nomination of an ex-PS such as Cazeneuve placate both groups? Questions abound, and Macron’s margin for maneuver is small.
Meanwhile, Ursula von der Leyen seems to be trying to capitalize on the chaos in France by signing the Mercosur agreement, which Macron has told her in no uncertain terms is unacceptable to France in its current state. It’s not clear, however, that France has the votes to block the agreement, which has been hailed by Germany’s Chancellor Scholz. Von der Leyen’s maneuver will only reinforce the complaints of EU high-handedness that fuel the anger of both the far right and far left in France. Whatever French government emerges from the current situation may soon find itself facing mass protests by farmers who stand to lose from the Mercosur pact.
2 Comments
Yikes…and I thought the schism in US politics was becoming more extreme and creating situations where it is difficult to get anything accomplished. Is this comparable to the political tumult that brought about the end of the Fourth Republic?
DeGaulle brought about the end of the Fourth Republic when, asked to be head of the French government, he said he would not without a new Constitution that gave powers to the President to break the deadlock in the French legislature. Thus did the Fourth Republic end and so was the Fifth Republic created, I believe.
The present situation is a political crisis, but not yet a Constitutional one —The Constitution of the Fifth Republic did not foresee the present situation, a legislature divided in three, but the President will stand pat.
Macron’s opponents want something like a return to the Fourth Republic’s structure, vesting more power in the legislature. Matters will remain fixed until the end of March when the verdict in Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement trial is delivered. If she’s found guilty and the prosecutor’s demand that she be barred from politics for five years is handed down, then all bets are off. Until then, the government of France will drift.
As someone observed, “The lesson of history is that we don’t learn from history.”