Still reeling from Joe Biden’s disastrous performance in last night’s US presidential debate, I awoke this morning to an email from a Belgian friend with a link to the latest OpinionWay polling on this Sunday’s French election. The results are no less dismaying than the news at home:
Dissolution has not hindered the advance of the RN; it has stimulated it. True, it has also provoked a reaction on the left, but the RN has gained 4 points, the left only 3. LR has lost 1 point over the past 2 weeks and Reconquête 2: those votes have clearly gone to the RN. Expected turnout is way up, to 65% compared with 47.5 in the first round of the 2022 legislatives, but the former abstentionists are not returning to the polls to block the RN but, in their majority, to support it. The president appears to have lost his wager. The only question now is whether the RN will win an absolute majority and, secondarily, whether Bardella will contradict himself and accept the prime minister’s post if it falls just slightly short.
The world will be a different place on Monday if the RN wins, with a second Trump presidency now likely in the US and Giorgia Meloni now at odds with Ursula von der Leyen and the majority in the European Parliament.
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The world becomes a deeply different place. And there are deep reasons for it. Nobody promotes any more scholar intelligence as the right set of skills to rule the world. The world became smaller, hotter, with less resources maybe – a globally better world, a better world for all, looks like a less achievable goal.
But this fights goes on!
Thankfully Labour will likely win the UK elections in a landslide, so we can all seek political asylum in the UK without fear of being sent to Rwanda which would ordinarily be a very nice place – Kigali is by far the cleanest city in Africa as I can attest – but not under those conditions.
The reason I say this is because it has already started: extreme right militants wanted to have a party at a bar around an old nazi slogan – Ausländer raus no less – and the mayor of Rouen town forbid this, only to see the administrative tribunal remand the interdiction. Judges are always and everywhere the first.
Macron will definitely get along with Bardella. He’s willing to racism as much as it takes, so long as taxes are low on the wealthy and the old social democratic institutions are further “reformed”/demolished. Bardella did his part by taking back the RN promise to roll back Macrons theiving the retirment of the salaried classes. It is an end of Casablanca moment, except the fascist version: Bardella and Macron at the start of a beautiful friendship.
At least this settles how “Jupiter” will go down in the history books. Not that anybody gives a damn.