Apparently, there will be no announcement of a new government this evening. François Bayrou has never been a man in a hurry. Unlike the president, who is always in a rush, Bayrou has been content to wait forty years for his chance to govern.
But in this case, it may be Macron who is delaying the announcement, because it is Macron who has the most to lose. Things have not been going well since his “clarification” of France’s political crisis. His first choice for post-dissolution PM, Michel Barnier, came into office disapproved by 60% of voters and lasted less than 3 months. Bayrou comes into office already disapproved by 70% (and that was before his gaffe in failing to avail himself of the opportunity to be filmed in Mayotte expressing sympathy with hurricane victims–an opportunity that Macron blew in a different way by availing himself of the opportunity, only to be filmed scolding victims rather than comforting them). If the Bayrou government fails as ignominiously as the Barnier government did, Macron, having failed with both right and center PMs, will face an unpalatable (to him) choice between nominating a PM from the left or resigning from the presidency.
And even before it has come into existence, the Bayrou government seems to be hanging by a thread. Despite Bayrou’s apparent eagerness to create a government of national unity extending, as the formula goes, “from Tondelier to Retailleau,” the number of willing volunteers is small. On the right, Wauquiez has refused to join after his demand to be named finance minister with a promise of no new taxes was rejected. On the (very moderate) left, Bernard Cazeneuve has refused to join despite his “esteem”for Bayrou, perhaps because he thinks he should have been named PM instead.
Even Retailleau, the most ardently recruited of the outgoing ministers, has said he will join Bayrou only if anyone he deems to be an unacceptable leftist is kept out. François Rebsamen, the socialist mayor of Dijon, appears to be moderate enough to placate Retailleau. But meanwhile, the ex-LR governor of Hauts-de-France Xavier Bertrand may have difficulty appeasing the RN, which detests him for his having beaten Marine Le Pen.
The foregoing brief sketch should be enough to illustrate the insoluble dilemma that Bayrou faces. Despite his desire to satisfy everyone, the contending forces so detest one another that any satisfaction granted to one arouses the ire of the others, even before any steps have been taken. Hence it is impossible to agree on a course of action for the hypothetical future government. It is a testament to Bayrou’s courage, or to his desperation, that he’s still prepared to take command of an army that seems to be on the verge of an historic defeat.