Bloquons tout?

As if the likely imminent fall of yet another government (with a vote scheduled for Seeptember 8) were not enough uncertainty for one week, a new social movement labeled Bloquons Tout! is threatening to shut down France on September 10. But that exactly is Bloquons Tout? What does it represent? Will it exert much influence?

We now have the results of a first investigation of the movement by the sociologist Antoine Bristielle (summarized in this brief broadcast). Contrary to some initial reports, the new movement appears to be quite different from the Gilets Jaunes, despite the superficial resemblance of having come into being via social media. Adherents to Bloquons Tout! are younger, tend to identify with the far left and La France Insoumise in particular, express serious environmental concerns, and are also worried about rising prices and scarcity of work.

What is the likelihood that such a movement will paralyze the country, and if it does, for how long? A day, a week, a month? Anyone familiar with French social movements will hesitate to make a prediction. My guess–and it is only a guess and not even a very educated one–is that this movement will not have the legs of the Gilets Jaunes. The social base is too narrow, and the identification with LFI will probably prove to be an impediment to a wider appeal (inside LFI, people are so enamored of their leader that they find it difficult to appreciate how much of a handicap he represents to achieving a broader appeal, which they don’t feel they need in any case because they see themselves as a vanguard movement rather than a a party to a potential coalition).

But the politics of the street are inherently unpredictable. Demonstrations are subject to infiltration. The police can slip up or run amok. The caretaker government will have no legitimacy and can easily blunder into making a bad situation worse. Disorder breeds anger which can bring more people down into the street.

Bristielle’s most significant finding is that what the protesters think they want above all is direct rather than representative democracy. Government by referendum is generally a terrible idea, but France in its current deadlocked state may need to resort to a referendum or series of referenda to overcome the legislative blockage. Macron says he will not resign, so he may be tempted to appease the mobs asking for his head by proposing one or more referenda, debate on which will divert everyone for another six months as the Macron era limps toward a conclusion.