The Socialists have announced that they will file a censure motion against Prime Minister Bayrou. This was a demise foretold months ago when Bayrou first proposed the idea of a “conclave” to resolve the pension crisis. Because the legislature was permanently deadlocked, Bayrou felt he had no choice but to offload the problem onto the unions and employers. The ensuing negotiations were given the name “conclave,” perhaps in the hope of divine intervention. This was not forthcoming. Hence the move toward censure.
Bayrou has accomplished nothing while in office and will leave no mark upon exiting, but the country will once again be plunged into a leadership crisis nearly a year after the initial crisis precipitated by Macron’s ill-advised decision to dissolve parliament. The selection of a new prime minister will be stymied by the same impasses that led to the appointments first of Barnier and then Bayrou. All that has changed is that Marine Le Pen is now ineligible to run for the presidency should the coming leadership crisis lead to an early presidential election, which is unlikely. But Macron is now faced with the problem of choosing a prime minister who can survive a vote of confidence, which will not be easy, as the next presidential contest has already begun.
Meanwhile, a propos that very contest, Dominique de Villepin has thrown his hat into the ring. A year ago I would have said that he had no chance, but with all the realignment that’s been going on within the various camps and subcamps, who knows? His verve and rhetorical vigor might well propel him ahead of the relatively colorless Édouard Philippe in the center-right part of the spectrum. If nothing else, his presence will certainly make the race more interesting.
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François “Bétharram” Bayrou is not out just yet as the RN will not vote the no-confidence motion. As a result the motion will not attract a majority of parliament members. The RN wants to wait for the budget this coming fall.
The political situation is actually quite simple to assess.
1. The French elected Mr Macron in 2017 and gave his new-born party a vast parliamentary majority in 2017, upon which two things happened:
– the destruction of traditional parties by Mr Macron without the construction of a new party past the 2017 electoral success;
– the total waste of the free hand given by the French in 2017, the contempt for and attempt to destroy unions, the slide towards an autistic and authoritarian regime culminating with the repression of the so-called “gilets jaunes” movement using police violence of a degree even worse than was seen in May 1968.
2. The French had no choice but to re-elect Mr Macron in 2022 as it was the only way they could avoid electing the far-right candidate. However, instructed by past experience, they made sure that there would not be a majority for or a majority against Mr Macron: they voted for immobilism. Mr Macron and what was left of his supporters did not get the message though, even calling themselves “the majority” when they were very far from commanding a majority in parliament and could not fool the French even for an instant. By refusing to look reality in the eyes, all Mr Macron and friends achieved was to propel distrust to levels hardly ever seen before.
3. Having locked himself in some alternative reality, Mr Macron and his band of unhinged ECB suffering advisers (I wouldn’t say you are mad said the analyst to the cow, I’d say you have some unresolved issues) tried dissolving parliament, which naturally resulted in a parliament where no majority on any political subject can possibly emerge. The French made sure of that in the parliamentary elections of 2025, and I would argue that they knew precisely what they were doing.
4. François “Bétharram” Bayrou is the perfect embodiment of point 3 as he has never achieved anything further in life since he was successful at the Aggrégation de Lettres Classiques many decades ago.
Many politicians pretend to believe in some alternative reality, but few actually do. One wonders if Mr Macron is one of these few.