Concentrating the European Mind

As Dr. Johnson observed long ago, “When a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.” Donald Trump’s dressing-down of Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office last Friday has had this effect on Europe, as this weekend’s emergency meeting in London demonstrated.

Unfortunately, as ever, Europe is not of one mind, and concentrating the mind of this hydra-headed monster is not easy. As usual, moreover, the French head is flightier than most. President Macron floated a proposal that quickly met with a cool reception from the UK. Macron’s idea–to call for an immediate one-month cease-fire in Ukraine–seems intended to split the difference between Washington, where Trump wants Zelenskyy to agree to an immediate permanent unconditional surrender cease-fire, and Kyiv, which wants security guarantees and a framework for independence before engaging in talks.

Does Macron still believe that Trump and Putin can be reasoned with, if not charmed? His readiness to break with consensus and to trust in his persuasive powers is sometimes useful, but in this case I think he’s mistaken, as he is mistaken to propose the real but minuscule French nuclear force de frappe as a credible deterrent. (On the incipient demise of the nuclear balance of power and its likely transformation into a “nuclear Westphalia,” see this artcle by David Grewal.) Macron also wants to put himself forward as the EU’s spokesperson on foreign policy and is moving quickly before Friedrich Merz takes office as chancellor in Germany. But what is needed is a united front among European leaders, not a freewheeling French president bent on making himself primus inter pares. I hope he will recognize the futility of this ambition. He deserves credit for immediately recognizing the calamity of the Trump-Zelenskyy confrontation and its implications for European security. But he also needs to remember that he is not de Gaulle and that the Europe of 2025 is not the Europe of 1955.